This could be the Year of the Road Warrior.
Each week, we’re spotting interesting quirks in our model. This week, the quirk is away-team performance.
Based on the 361 matches we have logged this year, both teams have an equal match rating the away team has a 51.6% probability of winning. As number nerds, we are eager to find out why.
Wasn't there an official DIA ranking already released; well yes, but there was a bit of an issue and it's so totally a 2021-22 issue.
In the Goff Rugby Report rankings that includes some of the NCR teams, this has been a tough time. Several Liberty teams produced wins but ended up dropping down, mainly because they beat other Liberty teams in very close games. Meanwhile, a few teams outside of that competition made big strides (Baylor, Michigan State, Utah Valley) and thus just pushed everyone down a spot or two.
We have a very complicated situation to deal with, which we will in some detail, so let's dispense with the less complicated stuff.