We won’t have a Boys HS National Championships, but maybe we can speculate as to who would have won.

It’s all complete speculation, but we’re going to try anyway:

Boys Single-School

Nine teams were accepted in Nationals as single-school teams, so one of those teams would have been seeded in the Tier II. Having seen results from most of these teams, even if it was just one or two games, we have a pretty good idea of who would definitely make that top eight.

Herriman, Xavier, Jesuit, and Gonzaga would be there for sure.

Penn did lose to St. Thomas Aquinas, but beat Germantown, a team that beat a very good Woodlands team, so Penn and STA would be in there. That’s a bit of a jump for Aquinas, but they were having a really good start to the season.

That leaves Rocky Mountain (2019 Tier II winners), Olympus, Wando, and Greenwich going for the final two spots. That would all depend on results from March and April, which we, of course, didn’t see, but the chances are Olympus and Wando would have ended up in Tier II. Westside was also expected to attend, and would be in Tier II.

As the spring went on, we are pretty sure that Xavier, ranked #1 when rugby was shut down, would have had trouble holding onto that ranking. Why? Well, depth and injuries might have had an influence, but it’s also because other teams were poised to play some pretty high-profile games. So if Jesuit started winning (quite likely) or Herriman kept on winning (ditto), we could well have seen more shifting.

So, while Xavier was ranked #1 on March 11, games against Aspetuck, Greenwich (twice), and an appearance at the Gonzaga Classic still on the slate, we’re leaning toward not seeding them as #1.

Instead, the team we were especially impressed with was Herriman. We figure they would keep going on that road.

Jesuit and Gonzaga had losses on their record, and while we’d expect them to rebound, they carry those losses into the seeding.

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So here’s how we see it:

#1 Herriman vs #8 Greenwich

#4 Gonzaga vs #5 St. Thomas Aquinas

 

#3 Xavier vs #6 Penn HS

#2 Jesuit vs #7 Rocky Mountain

 

This could be a bit harsh on Penn … but we’re just really excited about the Penn-Xavier rivalry. Those two teams, so different but so competitive, always play it close and we’d like to see it again.

Rocky Mountain wants to be in the top tier? Great; here’s a stern test against Jesuit. Remember, Jesuit lost just the 19-10 game against De La Salle. They could easily have run the table after that.

Aquinas had the most games under their belt among these teams, and had won them all. Gonzaga vs Aquinas would be a Big vs Tiny clash, but we think Aquinas would hang in there. 

Semifinals

Herriman vs Gonzaga

Xavier vs Jesuit

It’s quite possible that Penn could win that opener against Xavier. It would likely be a close one regardless. We’re saying Xavier but it could be Penn.

Final

Herriman vs Xavier

This is a big speculation. With a partial season and a bit of guesswork on the brackets, this is where we’ve arrived.

In the end, then, we look at the three-day grind of HS Nationals, and it comes down to durability and depth, as well as heart. These guys all have heart, but we think the durability part goes to Herriman.

Final Speculative Finish For 2020 Single-School Nationals That Never Happened

1. Herriman

2. Xavier

3. Jesuit

4. Gonzaga

5. Penn

6. St. Thomas Aquinas

7. Rocky Mountain

8. Greenwich

Again, we haven’t seen any of Greenwich, and could be way off on them.

Teams Who Didn't Apply?

Of the single-school teams that weren’t going to attend nationals, six are worth special note:

De La Salle beat Jesuit and won the All-California playoff. They would have done fine, although one wonders what a rematch with Jesuit would have been like.

St. Ignatius beat Gonzaga and would have been a handful against any team.

St. Edward was starting slowly but would have been competitive.

St. Augustine, the SoCal SCIRF champion, lost to Jesuit 22-5 on March 7, and that game probably spells out where the Saints would fall in the national playoffs — they’d do fine but they wouldn’t win.

East HS. East finished 4th last nationals and didn’t get the invitation this time, but could have received a backup invitation if someone had pulled out (which sometimes happens). East is hugely talented, but not always disciplined. Last year’s run was pretty special, but in the end it was a close win, an overtime loss, and a two-point loss. It’s hard to know where East could have fallen this year.

Carlsbad lost in a very close game to De La Salle in the All-California final. It’s fair to say they might be close to Jesuit in ability. But there’s a complication. While we at Goff Rugby Report put single-school teams in the rankings based on how they define themselves, or the league they’re in, HS Nationals is a little different. The SoCal Varsity White league allows a percentage of players from other schools to be in a team and still qualify. 

But depending on the actual out-of-school numbers for Carlsbad, they might not be seeded in with the single-school teams. Knowing HS Nationals the way we do, we’d expect Carlsbad to be seeded in Tier II if they had applied.