Two of the four teams that made last year's national men's DII college semis aren't back for another go, and that leaves things wide open this year.

With NC State and Iowa Central CC both in DIAA (and both in the playoffs in that division, by the way), only Wisconsin-Whitewater and Queens return. And there's no guarantee that those two will be in the semis again. Whitewater hasn't had its best season (even if they finished 2nd in the conference and won last week), while Queens hasn't really played a lot in recent weeks and remains a question-mark.

Here's how we see it; Goff Rugby Report rankings in parentheses:

Illinois State (#5) vs MSU-Moorhead (#20)

Montana State (#14) vs UMS&T (#13)

Illinois State's defense is what got them here and their front row, anchored by hooker Mike Stutzman, has done well to control the game in tight. They held Whitewater to a lone try in the Great Midwest final and that's no fluke. Moorhead hasn't really played for some weeks, not in league play anyway, and there's a concern about them being rusty.

Montana State is a big, powerful, hard-hitting team. S&T is a smart, skillful squad that knows how to win in playoff rugby. The rankings say this is a pick 'em game, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be close. It means that these are two very different teams who have had similar success.

We're going to go with the rankings and say S&T wins it, but it is tough to call, and we're pretty sure Illinois State comes out of the weekend winning two.

Vermont (#3) vs Whitewater (#6)

Memphis (#26) vs Villanova (#4)

This is a completely open-ended group. Yes Memphis is only ranked at #26, but the Tigers won the SCRC and one of the reasons they are ranked only 26 is because the SCRC DII isn't super-strong all the way through, and the other three conferences involved are all deep and very competitive.

Vermont's defense is excellent. They gave up only 21 points in league play, and while Whitewater is a high-scoring team that can score out wide and in tight, we're thinking UVM can hold them. Villanova is actually open to an upset, but we're leaning toward them.

This is a tough one to pick, but right now we're leaning Vermont.

Norwich (#1) vs Loyola (#9)

William Paterson (#24) vs Furman (#2)

Yes Norwich is ranked #1 but this has been the kind of year when anyone could be #1. Norwich should be able to handle a very good Loyola team, but it will be a tough go. Furman is probably stronger than WPU, and should get by there. That gives us a #1 vs #2 game in the quarterfinals. We're leaning Norwich but there's no guarantee.

Queens (#7) vs Lehigh (#15)

Central Michigan (#16) vs UMass-Lowell (#8)

Queens is young but explosive. They are expected to roll through and while Lehigh is tough defensively it's hard to imagine Queens being bottled up too much. Central Michigan is a late replacement for Grand Valley State, which had to pull out due to a heavily-depleted roster. Good for CMU for fronting up on short notice, but they won't be expected to beat Lowell.  

 We'll lean Queens here, but Lowell is very good and could unseat Queens in the quarters.