This could be the Year of the Road Warrior.

Each week, we’re spotting interesting quirks in our model. This week, the quirk is away-team performance.

Based on the 361 matches we have logged this year, both teams have an equal match rating the away team has a 51.6% probability of winning. As number nerds, we are eager to find out why.

We currently handicap home field advantage with +3.0 Rating Points to the home team’s match rating. That number was based on analysis of D1A results between 2014 and 2019. In our new, bigger population that includes D1AA, NCR D1, & NCR D2, does home field advantage have a lesser impact?

If so, why? You would think D1A teams would be better prepared for road trips but then again, most of them take on more rigorous travel. Maybe it’s too early to read into this given we did not have very precise preseason Ratings for the D1AA and NCR teams.

Do you have a theory on the success of away teams? Weigh in with a comment on the Goff Rugby Facebook Page or send us a comment.

Hoosiers Continue to Climb

Indiana have been red hot this Fall and now find themselves just outside our Top 10. Here’s the catch: now rated 15 points higher than the next best Big Ten team, the Hoosiers cannot move up any more with conference wins. 

The jump from 11th to 10th is the second largest gap in the Top 40 (6th to 5th is largest). Just about the only way to make that leap is by beating a Top 10 team. If Indiana can take wins from their final three conference games, they will get a chance at one such team in the D1A playoffs. Can the Hoosiers keep momentum and continuity through the brutal Midwest winter to capitalize on this opportunity?

Week 8 Pick'Ems Powered by Silverback Elite Rugby

Army-Navy Game

It’s hands down the match of the week: Army versus Navy at FedEx Field. It’s the premier match of our Weekly College Pick’Em Game < https://forms.gle/vWejkz59SPb2T1BJ6>. Navy sit at 7th in our Top 40. Army moved up to 10th with their win over Kutztown last week. The Power Index predicts it will be the Midshipmen by 2.5 points. But if there’s one game we expect to defy the analytics, it’s the Army-Navy Rivalry.

CURR RK	Δ RK	PREV RK	SCHOOL	COMP	Week 7 Results	PREV RAT	CURR RAT	Δ RAT
1	0	1	Lindenwood	D1A		97.64	97.64	0
2	0	2	California	D1A		97.29	97.29	0
3	0	3	Life	D1A		96.94	96.94	0
4	0	4	St. Mary's	D1A		95.51	95.51	0
5	0	5	Central Washington	D1A		91.68	91.68	0
6	0	6	Arkansas State	D1A		86.95	86.95	0
7	0	7	Navy	NCR1	Big Win vs Notre Dame College	86.47	86.47	0
8	0	8	Arizona	D1A		85.5	85.5	0
9	0	9	BYU	D1A		85.06	85.06	0
10	1	11	Army	NCR1	Big Win vs Kutztown	80.22	84.87	4.65
11	4	15	Indiana	D1A	Big Win vs Iona	74.76	78.33	3.57
12	-2	10	Kutztown	NCR1	Big Loss vs Army	81.61	76.96	-4.65
13	0	13	UCLA	D1A		76.25	76.25	0
14	2	16	Grand Canyon	D1A		74.29	74.29	0
15	-3	12	Davenport	D1A	Draw vs Wheeling	78.73	73.98	-4.75
16	-2	14	Penn State	NCR1	Close Loss vs St. Bonaventure	75.46	72.48	-2.98
17	2	19	Dartmouth	NCR1	Big Win vs Northeastern	68.71	72.24	3.53
18	2	20	St. Bonaventure	NCR1	Close Win vs Penn State	68.61	71.59	2.98
19	-2	17	Iona	NCR1	Big Loss vs Indiana	71.65	68.07	-3.58
20	-2	18	Northeastern	NCR1	Big Loss vs Dartmouth	71.42	67.89	-3.53
21	0	21	Notre Dame College	NCR1	Big Loss vs Navy	64.65	64.65	0
22	1	23	Colorado State	D1A	Close Win vs Utah Valley	63.51	64.52	1.01
23	-1	22	Iowa Central CC	NCR1		63.65	63.65	0
24	2	26	Boston College	NCR1	Big Win vs UMASS	61.42	62.52	1.1
25	0	25	Colorado	D1A	Close Win vs Air Force	61.56	62.19	0.63
26	-2	24	Queens University	NCR1	Big Win vs Southern Virginia	61.93	61.93	0
27	0	27	Ohio State	D1A	Big Win vs Purdue	60.63	60.63	0
28	0	28	Fairfield	NCR1	Big Win vs Rhodes Island	60.34	60.34	0
29	2	31	Adrian College	NCR2		59.42	59.42	0
30	2	32	Mary Washington	NCR1	Big Win vs Virginia Tech	59.4	59.4	0
31	3	34	Mount St. Mary's	NCR1	Big Win vs NC State	59.19	59.19	0
32	3	35	Oklahoma	D1A		59.13	59.13	0
33	3	36	Tennessee	D1AA	Big Win vs Clemson	59.08	59.08	0
34	-5	29	Utah Valley	D1A	Big Loss vs Colorado State	59.9	58.89	-1.01
35	3	38	Texas A&M	D1A	Big Win vs North Texas	55.07	58.54	3.47
36	-6	30	Bowling Green	D1AA	Close Loss vs Notre Dame	59.86	56.66	-3.2
37	-4	33	Illinois	D1A	Close Loss vs Michigan State	59.26	56.17	-3.09
38	1	39	Syracuse	NCR1	Close Win vs Oswego	55.03	55.85	0.82
39	UR		Baylor	D1A	Close Win vs Texas	53.62	55.61	1.99
40	0	40	Kentucky	D1AA	Big Win vs South Carolina	54.59	55.32	0.73
On The Cusp
		37	American International	NCR1	Close Loss vs Fordham	55.23	52.71	-2.52