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Week 8 College Power Ratings By Silverback Elite Rugby

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Week 8 College Power Ratings By Silverback Elite Rugby

The Power Ratings are presented by Silverbacks Elite Rugby.

This could be the Year of the Road Warrior.

Each week, we’re spotting interesting quirks in our model. This week, the quirk is away-team performance.

Based on the 361 matches we have logged this year, both teams have an equal match rating the away team has a 51.6% probability of winning. As number nerds, we are eager to find out why.

We currently handicap home field advantage with +3.0 Rating Points to the home team’s match rating. That number was based on analysis of D1A results between 2014 and 2019. In our new, bigger population that includes D1AA, NCR D1, & NCR D2, does home field advantage have a lesser impact?

If so, why? You would think D1A teams would be better prepared for road trips but then again, most of them take on more rigorous travel. Maybe it’s too early to read into this given we did not have very precise preseason Ratings for the D1AA and NCR teams.

Do you have a theory on the success of away teams? Weigh in with a comment on the Goff Rugby Facebook Page or send us a comment.

Hoosiers Continue to Climb

Indiana have been red hot this Fall and now find themselves just outside our Top 10. Here’s the catch: now rated 15 points higher than the next best Big Ten team, the Hoosiers cannot move up any more with conference wins. 

The jump from 11th to 10th is the second largest gap in the Top 40 (6th to 5th is largest). Just about the only way to make that leap is by beating a Top 10 team. If Indiana can take wins from their final three conference games, they will get a chance at one such team in the D1A playoffs. Can the Hoosiers keep momentum and continuity through the brutal Midwest winter to capitalize on this opportunity?

Week 8 Pick'Ems Powered by Silverback Elite Rugby

Army-Navy Game

It’s hands down the match of the week: Army versus Navy at FedEx Field. It’s the premier match of our Weekly College Pick’Em Game < https://forms.gle/vWejkz59SPb2T1BJ6>. Navy sit at 7th in our Top 40. Army moved up to 10th with their win over Kutztown last week. The Power Index predicts it will be the Midshipmen by 2.5 points. But if there’s one game we expect to defy the analytics, it’s the Army-Navy Rivalry.

CURR RK Δ RK PREV RK SCHOOL COMP Week 7 Results PREV RAT CURR RAT Δ RAT
1 0 1 Lindenwood D1A   97.64 97.64 0
2 0 2 California D1A   97.29 97.29 0
3 0 3 Life D1A   96.94 96.94 0
4 0 4 St. Mary's D1A   95.51 95.51 0
5 0 5 Central Washington D1A   91.68 91.68 0
6 0 6 Arkansas State D1A   86.95 86.95 0
7 0 7 Navy NCR1 Big Win vs Notre Dame College 86.47 86.47 0
8 0 8 Arizona D1A   85.5 85.5 0
9 0 9 BYU D1A   85.06 85.06 0
10 1 11 Army NCR1 Big Win vs Kutztown 80.22 84.87 4.65
11 4 15 Indiana D1A Big Win vs Iona 74.76 78.33 3.57
12 -2 10 Kutztown NCR1 Big Loss vs Army 81.61 76.96 -4.65
13 0 13 UCLA D1A   76.25 76.25 0
14 2 16 Grand Canyon D1A   74.29 74.29 0
15 -3 12 Davenport D1A Draw vs Wheeling 78.73 73.98 -4.75
16 -2 14 Penn State NCR1 Close Loss vs St. Bonaventure 75.46 72.48 -2.98
17 2 19 Dartmouth NCR1 Big Win vs Northeastern 68.71 72.24 3.53
18 2 20 St. Bonaventure NCR1 Close Win vs Penn State 68.61 71.59 2.98
19 -2 17 Iona NCR1 Big Loss vs Indiana 71.65 68.07 -3.58
20 -2 18 Northeastern NCR1 Big Loss vs Dartmouth 71.42 67.89 -3.53
21 0 21 Notre Dame College NCR1 Big Loss vs Navy 64.65 64.65 0
22 1 23 Colorado State D1A Close Win vs Utah Valley 63.51 64.52 1.01
23 -1 22 Iowa Central CC NCR1   63.65 63.65 0
24 2 26 Boston College NCR1 Big Win vs UMASS 61.42 62.52 1.1
25 0 25 Colorado D1A Close Win vs Air Force 61.56 62.19 0.63
26 -2 24 Queens University NCR1 Big Win vs Southern Virginia 61.93 61.93 0
27 0 27 Ohio State D1A Big Win vs Purdue 60.63 60.63 0
28 0 28 Fairfield NCR1 Big Win vs Rhodes Island 60.34 60.34 0
29 2 31 Adrian College NCR2   59.42 59.42 0
30 2 32 Mary Washington NCR1 Big Win vs Virginia Tech 59.4 59.4 0
31 3 34 Mount St. Mary's NCR1 Big Win vs NC State 59.19 59.19 0
32 3 35 Oklahoma D1A   59.13 59.13 0
33 3 36 Tennessee D1AA Big Win vs Clemson 59.08 59.08 0
34 -5 29 Utah Valley D1A Big Loss vs Colorado State 59.9 58.89 -1.01
35 3 38 Texas A&M D1A Big Win vs North Texas 55.07 58.54 3.47
36 -6 30 Bowling Green D1AA Close Loss vs Notre Dame 59.86 56.66 -3.2
37 -4 33 Illinois D1A Close Loss vs Michigan State 59.26 56.17 -3.09
38 1 39 Syracuse NCR1 Close Win vs Oswego 55.03 55.85 0.82
39 UR   Baylor D1A Close Win vs Texas 53.62 55.61 1.99
40 0 40 Kentucky D1AA Big Win vs South Carolina 54.59 55.32 0.73
                 
On The Cusp
    37 American International NCR1 Close Loss vs Fordham 55.23 52.71 -2.52