Rugby fans would do well to pay attention to the Pacific Nations Cup this coming weekend even though the USA is not playing in a game.

The reason is because the PNC is the qualification pathway for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. The plan is this: the top three teams from the PNC get into the World Cup. However, since Japan and Fiji have already qualified thanks to where they finished in the 2023 Rugby World Cup, it’s actually the top three teams without including Japan and Fiji.

The upshot if that is, pretty much, if you finish in the top five of the PNC, then you’re in the Rugby World Cup.

But the key phrase is “pretty much.” We at GRR have used terms like “most likely” and “pretty much” and “probably.” That’s because some weird things could happen to make it not work out the obvious way.

For example. Canada could to Japan, and the USA could beat Japan. And then you’d have a three-way tie of 1-1 teams, and bonus points could mean that Canada or Japan would finish 3rd in their pool.

Now, that’s not the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario is that Japan beats both Canada and the USA and wins Pool B, with USA 3rd.

In Pool A  Tonga beat Samoa and the most likely scenario is that the winner of this weekend’s Tonga vs Fiji match will will win the pool. However, what if Fiji, which has already secured a place in RWC 2027, takes it chill and doesn’t win their games? We think that’s enormously unlikely. But if it were to happen, and Fiji ends up in the 5th-6th game, then winning 5th place does NOT get you a place in RWC 2027, because three teams that hadn’t yet qualified would have finished ahead of you.

All of that is to say … “with qualifications” this is what we think will happen.

1. If Tonga beats Fiji, they will have won Pool A and will have a guaranteed spot in Australia 2027. 

2. If Fiji beats Tonga, then it’s almost guaranteed that they will make the semis, and therefore the 5th-place team in the PNC will qualify for 2027.

3. Regardless of whether Canada beats Japan or Japan beats Canada, the USA has a shot at the semis. The key is the Eagles have to improve markedly and beat Japan in Sacramento. However, Canada only needs a bonus point to guarantee a place in the semifinals. A bonus point, then, will also ensure Canada has qualified for the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

4. Meanwhile, keep an eye on South America. This weekend Chile and Uruguay begin a two-game series with the winner garnering qualification. The losing team has another chance. Meanwhile, Paraguay and Brazil also begin a two-game series, the winner of which will remain alive for one more shot.