Status and Speculations on D1A and NCR D1 Fall Teams

11.01.2022

Who's landing where?

NCR is holding their D1 playoffs this fall, and of course D1A will hold their playoffs in the spring, but right now we're taking a look who might be in playoffs or who is set for a conference championship.

We lump NCR D1 and D1A together because there are at least two conferences where teams of either ilk are in the conference together. This bring about the amusing situation whereby both CRAA and NCR list a conference's standings but exclude teams not shooting for their own playoffs.

So maybe that's why we can explain some of it.

Liberty

The teams in the Liberty Conference are shooting for a spot in the NCR playoffs. This past weekend, we saw the semifinals with East #1 AIC vs West #2 Fairfield, and West #1 Brown vs East #2 Dartmouth. Brown had played Dartmouth the week before in what was officially the Ivy League championship game. This time it was for a place in the Liberty D1 final, and Brown took control 45-13. Once again backed up by a really strong scrum, Brown is looking seriously at a conference title.

In their way is AIC, who had won a series of close games to go unbeaten in their side of the conference. In this game the Yellow Jackets ran out to an early lead thanks to a penalty from German Rossi and a try from Rakeem Ridore. Fairfield center Chris Giunta ansered with a long-range penalty, but AIC scored another try when Israel Martinez stole the ball out the back of the Fairfield scrum and was in at the corner. Rossi's conversion made it 15-3. Fairfield's mistakes were hurting them. Fairfield hooker Stephen Ryan's try made it closer but after Fairfield fumbled the restart Martinez raced in for another.

Fairfield righted the shi[ after that and a huge run from Pat Burke, converted by Giunta, and it was 20-15. AIC managed to answer, once again punishing a restart mistake for Patrick Maclin to cruise in. 25-15. Giunta added a penalty goal and then cut through for a try to make it a nailbiting 25-23.

Once again AIC responded, with Taivon Barker scoring the try. Rossie's conversion made it 32-23, and then he and Giunta traded penalties to finish it off 35-26.

AIC is a tenacious team and doesn't seem to worry too much about how favored they are. Fairfield will have learned a lot about being tidy and accurate against an opportunistic team.

Both AIC and Brown will probably enter the NCR D1 playoffs.

Fun Wrinkle

Siena, as we reported earlier this fall, has been bumped up to D1 despite playing a D1AA schedule. Siena is undefeated in Liberty's D1AA league and will likely have a play-in game against someone to get into what we expect to be quarterfinals.

Siena Moved From NCR D1AA to D1 Playoffs; Here's Why

Big 10

The Big 10 is a D1A conference, but it looks like Indiana will be looking at a spot with the NCR playoffs this fall. Indiana won comfortably over Purdue to clinch the #1 seed in The Big 10 East. They will play Notre Dame in the upcoming semis, while Ohio State will take on Illinois. The Big 10 winner also is normally in thw D1A playoffs, but last spring Ohio State was unable to do that and Notre Dame doesn't want to play a spring playoff, so all of that is up in the air.

We might well see a team or two from here in the CRAA bowl games in December.

Big 10 East	W	L	T	PF	PA	PD	BT	BL	Pts
Indiana	3	0	0	189	41	148	3	0	15
Illinois	2	1	0	103	105	-2	2	0	10
Wisconsin	1	2	0	117	105	12	2	1	7
Purdue	0	3	0	12	170	-158	0	0	0

Big 10 West	W	L	T	PF	PA	PD	BT	BL	Pts
Ohio State	3	0	0	125	38	87	3	0	15
Notre Dame	2	1	0	93	63	30	2	0	10
Michigan State	1	2	0	60	82	-22	2	0	6
Michigan	0	3	0	26	84	-58	0	0	0

Also notable that two of Indiana's best players, Noah Brown and Will Chevalier, are currently with the USA 7s team going to Hong Kong. This will make things a bit tough for IU but, Head Coach Luke Gross told GRR, this will just give opportunities for others to step in to contribute.

Big 10 Finals Day is November 12 at Notre Dame, where all eight teams play for placement, with Wisconsin playing Michigan State for 5th and Purdue vs Michigan for 7th. The teams that lose the November 5 semis will play for 3rd on the 12th. There are also semis for 5th place, with Mkichigan at Wisconsin and Purdue at Michigan State.

Big Rivers

This is much easier as the Big Rivers is an all-NCR conference. Thomas More has won and Wheeling, with their surprise win over Adrian, are 2nd. Those two are expected to be in the NCR D1 playoffs. While it may seem that Thomas More has dominated, they are without two players who were drafted into the MLR—Matias Caramuti and Tomas Casares. The Saints are deep and can probably handle the absence, but it won't be easy. Overall, this has been a successful first year for the conference made up entirely of school-supported teams. The games were competitive and challenging.

Notice the four close-loss bonus points.

Here are the final standings:

Big Rivers	W	L	T	PF	PA	PD	BT	BL	Pts
Thomas More	5	0	0	206	82	124	5	0	25
Wheeling	3	2	0	169	129	40	4	0	16
Adrian	3	2	0	163	138	25	3	0	15
Marian	2	3	0	122	148	-26	2	1	11
Iowa Central CC	2	3	0	124	153	-29	1	2	11
Aquinas	0	5	0	94	228	-134	1	1	2

Rugby East

This is another conference in which some teams are thinking D1A playoffs, and others thinking NCR. This coming weekend Army is at Navy. The winner will likely be the Rugby East champion, and both will be thinking about the D1A spring playoffs. Teams a little further down the list are thinking NCR D1 playoffs. Can St. Bonaventure finish 2nd? Maybe. They play Navy on November 12. They can't quite get there for 1st. Even if Navy beat Army and then lost to St. Bonaventure, the bonus points won't add up in Bonnies' favor.

Still, it's likely that St. Bonaventure will be the top seed in the NCR D1 playoffs, and it's likely that Queens will be there, too. The question remains as to whether there's room for a third Rugby East team. If there is, four 2-4 teams have a shot:

Kutztown, which has only Mary Washington to face (Rugby East teams don't all play the same number of games).

Notre Dame College, who would want to beat Mount St. Mary's and Penn State (certainly doable).

Mary Washington, who would want to beat Penn State and Kutztown (tough, but possible).

Mount St. Mary's, who would be looking at beating NDC and Queen's (not easy).

Penn State, at 2-5, has two games left and could end up 4-5 and in the hunt, too.

With an extra bonus point, and games against other contenders for 5th place, Notre Dame College has their destiny more in their hands than others. But that one game may be enough for Kutztown—certainly the November 12 KU v UMW game will carry a lot of meaning.

A Note for the Uninitiated

So if you are a player or a fan new to the college game, we're talking about two oversight groups here that run playoffs based on the calendar. NCR D1 teams want to play all their 15-a-side major competition in the fall, and D1A run by CRAA has for over a decade run their playoffs in the spring. If you want to ask "what about Lindenwood, Life, Davenport, Arkansas State, Cal, Saint Mary's, BYU, Central Washington, or those others?" The answer is, they will be playing most of their regular season, and their playoffs, in the winter/spring. In addition, Army, Navy, and potentially someone like Ohio State would be doing playoffs in the spring also.

NCR Playoff Bracket?

Here's a guess:

#1 St. Bonaventure vs AIC

#4 Thomas More vs winner of Siena/NDC

#3 Indiana vs Queens

#2 Brown vs Wheeling

This is just a guess, and we don't really think Queens is the #6 seed ... but you would normally try to avoid having teams that know each other playing in the same bracket. This way the only way that happens is if NDC (or whomever from Rugby East) beats Siena and then beats Thomas More.