Well with all the talk of playoffs and championships and the like, there’s the little matter of the game in Provo.

As the California Golden Bears stride into the Wasatch Mountains to face the BYU Cougars we could look at all the questions about the Varsity Cup as a competition - did they go too far in having different eligibility rules than USA Rugby, is the invitation system flawed, should they even use the term “National Championship” - but, instead, let’s look at the game.

Should BYU win, and I think they will, the Cougars will end the 15s season as the #1-ranked team in the nation. That’s our ranking, but I doubt BYU will argue. If Cal wins, then it’s distinctly possible Cal will end the season #1, but it could be that Life University, should they win the DIA Final this weekend, could be #1 instead.

I think BYU will win because they are bigger and more physical up front than anyone else. No judgment here - I really don’t care - but the BYU team is (generally) older than its opponents, and has a good percentage of players who learned the game overseas, and that allows the Cougars to punish teams in the breakdown and on the defensive line, and react to mistakes and opportunities very quickly.

BYU is not unique in this, but is probably the best.

Among BYU’s weapons: a front row, led by Alex Vorster and Zane Mendenhall, that is strong at the neck and shoulders, and able to move around the field; a back row that causes turnovers, and can run superbly in the open field - the Elkington brothers and Latanoa Pikula; A smart halfback combination of Luke Mocke and Jared Whippy; a really nice, young backline that includes Zach Weber, Calvin Whiting, and Scholz Award Nominee Kevin Schofield. They can score by being tough, by moving the ball, with the boot, and they hit hard.

Cal has a Scholz Award Nominee in 6-5 center Anthony Salaber, who gets to meet fellow former HS All American Whiting in the middle of the ground. The Cal backline is perhaps a little less bulky and slightly more shifty - that’s how Lucas Dunne, Russell Webb, Jake Goena and Patrick Barrientes look, anyway. In addition, the loss of Harry Adolphus to injury hurts the Bears.

In the forwards, Scott Walsh and George Vrame are very impressive in the front row. That battle will be fun to watch. Cal will likely have the edge in the second row both around the field and at the lineout, with big men James Kondrat, Connor Sweet (both from Xavier HS in New York), or Tomas Zerbino. In the back row, Cal is very high on freshman and former HS All American Nick Mirhashem, who may not start but is a talented tanker and has been playing for a long time.

It’s a physical Cal team, but dominating physically is a by-product of other things for them, while for BYU dominating physically seems to be one of the top things on their list.

I think it’s going to be tough for Cal to win at BYU’s South Field. The Cougars haven’t been challenged by too many teams, and Cal has been a shade more vulnerable - including a humbling 50-3 loss to UBC. 

Cal and BYU have played five common opponents (with BYU playing St. Mary’s twice - we’ll average those results). For Cal, they were 5-0 against St. Mary’s, Central Washington, Air Force, Utah, and Army, with an average score of 38.6 to 17.4; BYU played St. Mary’s twice, so those six games against those five opponents resulted in six wins and an average score of 58.3 to 16.8. In only one game did Cal have a better result than BYU - 27-14 over St. Mary’s while BYU won 30-29. However, the Cougars played St. Mary’s a second time and won 62-15.

That’s pretty consistent information. And with the Cougars beating Central Washington 58-27, and Cal escaping 14-13 against those self-same Wildcats.

Got to pick BYU.

 

BYU v Cal History (source Cal Varsity Rugby):

2015: BYU 30 Cal 27

2014: BYU 43 Cal 33

2013: BYU 27 Cal 24

2011: Cal 21 BYU 14

2010: Cal 19 BYU 7

2009: BYU 25 BYU 22

2008: Cal 59 BYU 7

2007: Cal 37 BYU 7

2006: Cal 29 BYU 26

2001: Cal 33 BYU 22

1984: Cal 15 BYU 10

1983: Cal 44 BYU 6

1981: Cal 12 BYU 11

1972: Cal 24 BYU 17