The DII men’s college national playoff picture is clearing, somewhat. We’ve got some insight, so here goes:

When and Where

On the weekend of November 14 there will be the play-in weekend. For many teams this means an intra-conference playoffs, while for others this means a play-in between two lower-seeded conferences. These games are held throughout the country.

On the weekend of November 21-22, the Round of 16 and Round of 8 will be held, at three or four locations around the country. Last year the hosts were Salisbury, University of Rhode Island, James Madison, and Washington University of St. Louis. There will be a similar spread this year, although we might see the competition spread a little more to the west.

On December 5-6 the semis and final will be held at Furman University in Greenville, SC and will be streamed live.

While there are, by our count, 16 DII college conferences, we won’t a simple playoff of each conference champion taking a spot in the Round of 16. There’s a big disparity of strength within the conferences, so we will see some conferences have to play their way in.

 

OK, so that’s settled (sort of). Here’s how everyone’s playoff prospects look right now:

New England Wide - Springfield and Westfield lead in this conference that almost certainly will be expected to play-in to get to the Round of 16.

New England CRC - A strong and competitive conference, in which Rhode Island, Vermont, and Coast Guard are in a virtual tie midway through the season. There will be a wonderful race to the finish here. Expect the winner to go straight to the Round of 16, and the 2nd place team potentially to have a play-in opportunity.

Colonial Coast - Salve Regina leads this conference, and while Endicott and Plymouth State are chasing, Salve hasn’t lost yet. Watch for this conference, though, to have to play in, especially since their defending champion team isn’t there anymore. 

Rugby Northeast - Another strong conference with a tight group at the top. But Roger Williams is still undefeated, and it looks as if it’s RWU or Bryant for the playoff spot. This conference has its own playoffs November 7, so any one of four teams could win it.

Tri-State - This New York-area conference has two divisions, and in the South Molloy is on top and doesn’t look like they will be unseated. Meanwhile, RPI’s defeat of Vassar threw everyone into confusion. RPI, Vassar, or Siena could be top. There’ll be a playoff, however, and Molloy has to be favored to win it. Expect the Tri-State winner to then play off, with with the MARC runner-up, which is what happened last year, or Upstate #1, which could be more logical. 

Upstate NY - SUNY Cortland leads this conference and should win it barring a big surprise. We could well see the winner having to play-in.

MARC - Without defending champion Notre Dame College, the MARC is a bit more wide open. York, Rowan, and IUP look set to contest for the #1 seed, which will go straight to the Round of 16. Our money is on Rowan. The runner-up team got a play-in last year; we’re not so sure it will happen this year.

Cardinals - Another conference missing its 2014 champion. This conference is weird in that it is split along NSCRO lines. Group 1 is DII-only teams; Group 2 could go DII or NSCRO, and Group 3 is NSCRO-only. VMI and Mary Washington look good to contend for the seed for playoffs, with Old Dominion still in with a shot. The weather has thrown this season for a loop, somewhat. VMI v ODU was called off, and probably won’t be played … until playoff time. The Cardinals winner will go into the Round of 16, and it’s likely the #2 team will go into a play-in against the Capital runner-up.

Capital - This is a conference with two national championship contenders, one other team highly-regarded, and the rest teams that are battling, or struggling. Towson or Salisbury will win the conference and get a spot in the Round of 16. The #2 team will certainly get a play-in opportunity, probably against the Cardinals #2.

Southern - Nothing is settled here, where most of the games recently were washed out due to Hurricane Joaquin. Furman could repeat as champions, but they’ve already lost a game. East Carolina, Coastal Carolina, and UNC-Wilmington all have something to say about this. The Southern #2 probably deserves to get into a play-in against somebody, maybe …

Deep South - Spring Hill is in control here, and on the play-in scene is battling against the fact that Louisiana Tech forfeited their play-in game last year. So they may be asked to prove themselves against the likes of UNC-Wilmington. Should be a good game.

Great Lakes - Seven teams in two divisions will come down to Grand Valley State v Xavier for the title. The winner will go straight into the Round of 16. Tough to tell which is stronger right now - we’re leaning GVSU.

Northern Lights - It’s UM-Duluth and no one else. Some of the other teams have potential, not none is anywhere near the Fighting Penguins. Nevertheless, it’s likely the #2 team out of Minnesota (Mankato or Winona) will get a shot at another place, probably against the WIIL runner up.

WIIL - there are four or five really good teams here, with UW-Whitewater still the class of the bunch until someone knocks the Warhawks from their perch. Northern Michigan, Lindenwood-Belleville, and Northern Iowa are all probably deserving of a place in the Round of 16. Unlikely we’ll see WIIL #4 get a shot at it, but #3? Certainly #2 will, against Northern Lights runner up. This conference, though, is the best in men’s DII college (with apologies to the NECRC).

Gateway - Three good teams, but UMS&T has beaten the other two, so it’s UMS&T likely to win this. But that doesn’t mean the other teams aren’t strong. St. Louis might deserve a play-in opportunity, but it’s hard to find room. In the end Gateway may have to battle with WIIL for a spot.

Rocky Mountain - A much-improved Rocky Mountain Conference with four teams and Colorado School of Mines digging their way through in impressive fashion leads us to say that the Rocky Mountain winner should go straight into the Round of 16. But the numbers aren’t quite there to make that happen. Instead we’ll probably see another play-in.

 

So this is how it could all look (just speculation from us at this points):

Play-in Round

1. Rugby Northeast #2 v Colonial Coast #1

2. NECRC #2 v New England Wide #1

3. Tri-State #1 v Upstate #1

4. Cardinals #2 v Capital #2

5. Southern #2 v Deep South #1

6. Gateway 1 v WIIL #2

7. Northern Lights #2 v Rocky Mountain 1

 

Round of 16

Northern Lights #1

WIIL #1

Capital #1

MARC #1

Play-in #6

NECRC

Play-in #4

South #1

Rugby Northeast #1

Play-in #7

Cardinals #1

Play-in #3

Great Lakes #1

Play-in #2

Play-in #5

Play-in #1