Trivia question: Of the five DIA finals held, how many were decided by more than a try?

Answer: One.

That’s right, one. And that one, Saint Mary’s 21 Life 6 in 2014, was close until the very end when the Gaels scored a try at the death. 

Cal 21-14 over BYU. BYU 49-42 over Arkansas State. Life 16-14 over Saint Mary’s. Saint Mary’s 30-24 over Life. All of those others were within a score at full time.

This included a phantom try of 2013, when Joe Cowley was actually in touch before he touched down what would become the game-winner. This would include a discussion right at the end of the last game between referee and assistants and the video record with Life right on the tryline.

Suffice to say, close.

This year will be close again.

Normally I will go with the team that stresses defense and set piece, but this time, you can’t define either team like that. Certainly Life has a better defense - the numbers show that, and their philosophy backs it up. But Saint Mary’s has a really, really good set piece, and so it’s not like you can say one team can dominate if the game moves at a slow, conservative pace.

The same goes for a free-wheeling, wild game. Saint Mary’s has the image of being able to win a shootout (and they have earned it), but Life can sling it and bring it with the best of them.

I am going to pick Saint Mary’s in this game because I think their set piece is a shade more dependable than that of Life, they don’t get rattled when they fall behind, and overall they are more experienced than the relatively young Running Eagles.

But what I won’t do is tell you what kind of game it will be. We could see end-to-end action, or a slugfest or scruffiest. It might depend on the referee. But either way, both teams should be able to show who they are, and I think Saint Mary’s will win.

And it will probably be really close.